Tuesday, January 24, 2012

Real Estate 2012: Many Positive Outlooks

Excerpts reprinted with permission from "KeepingCurrentMatters.com"

There is a growing belief among many experts that 2012 will be the year housing turns the corner and starts heading in a more positive direction. Whenever we write a post like this, we unleash the hordes of critics who say we are again wearing rose colored glasses or are puppets being controlled by the National Association of Realtors (NAR) and other industry groups.

It is for that reason that we want to share the beliefs of other organizations in this post.

Washington Post:

“Housing Market and Economy Showing Encouraging Signs.” For the complete article please go to

The Wall Street Journal:

“From Bottom Up, Signs of Housing Recovery”

USA Today:

“Housing Outlook is More Upbeat”


“CoreLogic’s chief economist Mark Fleming says housing statistics and the duration of the downturn to date indicate 2012 may be the year the housing market begins to turn the corner.”

Freddie Mac:

“With the New Year comes a sense of cautious optimism. There are some positive signs in the job market and consumer confidence; housing is starting to raise hopes for continued gradual economic recovery.”

Fannie Mae:

“The housing sector will likely take incremental steps forward in 2012 …according to economists at Fannie Mae.”

What does it all mean? Well like any forecast, the only thing we know for sure is that it is WRONG. We do not know if it is wrong on the high side, wrong on the low side, wrong early or wrong late. But, the significant thing is probably that after years of Gloom and Doom, a lot of people who make their livings forecasting real estate trends are turning bullish.

Will it happen, time will tell. My read is that the consensus is that we will hit bottom sometime in the first half of 2012.

There are some signs that this is already happening in our immediate area. For example, inventory of houses in Broomall, zip code 19008, priced from $250,000 to $350,000 is about 3 months (10 houses selling each month and 32 for sale). In Springfield, zip code 19064, in the $175,000 to $250,000 price range, there is about a 4 month supply (30 houses for sale, selling 7-8 a month). That is getting back into seller market territory. (Under 5 months of inventory is defined aas a seller's market where there are more buyers than sellers and there is upward pressure on prices).

Will that continue or are we just seeing some statistical anomalies. Time will tell, but I think we are about to turn the corner.

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